2021 OSCAR THOUGHTS

I waited so long to write about the Oscar nominations that the Oscars are now in two days.

I didn't see everything, there's no way I am wasting my time watching Hillbilly Elegy. The White Tiger kind of came out to no fanfare at a weird time and I missed it. Then I've seen zero shorts, and missed Shaun of the Sheep, Over the Moon, The Mole Agent, and every International nomination besides Collective and Another Round

Otherwise the pandemic made seeing everything a lot easier from home. No need to drive to Toronto to see anything.

So I'll do a Think Will Win, Think Should Win, (both of course), and Biggest Misses for each category besides shorts, and animation. I'm no kind of prognosticator, but I did win an office Oscar pool once even though I never got my winnings ANDREW.

Anyway if you want the correct best of the year (minus the 2021 releases) look here.

If you want my thoughts on the the Oscar's usual hit and miss stuff, then here:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Father

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Notes: Want to talk about misses? I knew a number of my particular favourites wouldn't make it. I can see the Small Axe movies not being considered because of their stupid and poorly thought-out release categorizing, but First Cow? Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always? Weird. It's great to see Sound of Metal in there, I wasn't expecting that. I would boot Promising Young Woman and Chicago 7 for a good 30 other movies. But they are both safe watches that feel transgressive, and Mank another mediocre entry, is about Hollywood so you can see how they fit. One Night in Miami... is better than all three though.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Gary Oldman - Mank

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun - Minari

Notes: DELROY LINDO. How? Especially for Gary Oldman. Another Round managed a best director nomination, so Mads Mikkelsen wouldn't be out of the question. Both Judas and the Black Messiah leads should probably be here. I don't want to shit on Chadwick Boseman who was a great actor and by all accounts a terrific person, and he did good work with very stagey material, but there are far more interesting performances this year. But I think he wins posthumously, or it's a career cap for Hopkins. But awesome for Ahmed and Yeun, two excellent performances I expected to get overlooked.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Notes: I feel like Viola Davis is the only person in that movie who got to build a whole character, and boy did she. Playing against her 'noble, suffering, black woman' type she usually gets recognition for, she's so damn good as a paranoid, protective, worldly artist who knows her opportunity to 'get hers' is very limited and she's not going to miss it. I missed Pieces of a Woman, I just didn't want to deal with that subject right now. Andra Day is the best part of a bad movie, same for Mulligan. McDormand is the only shot to unseat Davis. She's excellent in a movie that lives or dies by her performance. I guess Elizabeth Moss will never get nominated? What more can she do?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...

Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Notes: This category is loaded. Everyone is good. I would say Cohen is a cut below the other 4. Paul Raci's coming out of nowhere and giving an absolute knock-out performance that still holds my heart makes me want him to win, but goddamn. All excellent. I think Kaluuya wins because he has the most attention. Stanfield's character didn't get as much writing, but Stanfield's constant edge of terror is excellent too. Leslie Odom Jr. is the standout of 4 great performances in One Night in Miami...

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Olivia Colman - The Father

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

Notes: I have heard nothing but bad things about Hillbilly Elegy, said to be a dramatic yelling showcase for Glenn Close, so I can see how she was nominated over other candidates. I had no idea how to look at Bakalova's performance, but I'm cool with it being here. Coleman is great. I think the attention Mank has received and the fact that Amanda Seyfried is the movie's only saving grace gives her the win. Yuh-Jung Youn, however, was just so incredibly good in Minari.

Best Achievement in Directing

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland (First Asian Woman nominated for Best Director)

David Fincher - Mank

Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round

Notes: Minari is the best movie, and the best achievement, so... but Nomadland has a ton of attention, Zhao is a talented filmaker, and how cool will it be to see an Asian woman win? Mank and Promising Young Woman kind of sucked, Kelly Reichert should take one of their places. Regina King did a great job with One Night in Miami, and Miranda July with Kajillionaire too. It's cool Vinterberg was nominated. I might not have, but Another Round was a good movie.

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah - Will Berson (screenplay by/story by), Shaka King (screenplay by/story by), Kenneth Lucas (story by) (as Kenny Lucas), Keith Lucas (story by)

Minari - Lee Isaac Chung (written by)

Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell (written by)

Sound of Metal - Darius Marder (screenplay by/story by), Abraham Marder (screenplay by), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Aaron Sorkin (written by)

Notes: Like they're not going to give it to Sorkin. He made a fun, easily digestible movie that sanded down all the edges of the political battle and bastardized the historic figures portrayed. That's 100% Oscar Material. I can't say enough good things about Minari, it's excellent in every way. There's a long list of movies I would have here above Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman, for a few: Palm Springs, Kajillionaire, Blow the Man Down, Vast of Night, The Assistant, the aforementioned Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - Sacha Baron Cohen (screenplay by/story by), Anthony Hines (screenplay by/story by), Dan Swimer (screenplay by/story by), Peter Baynham (screenplay by), Erica Rivinoja (screenplay by), Dan Mazer (screenplay by), Jena Friedman (screenplay by), Lee Kern (screenplay by), Nina Pedrad (story by)

Nomadland - Chloé Zhao (written for the screen by)

One Night in Miami... - Kemp Powers (screenplay by)

The Father - Christopher Hampton (screenplay by), Florian Zeller (screenplay by)

The White Tiger - Ramin Bahrani (written for the screen by)

Notes: This is a category that is usually pretty weak. It's typically filled up with IP exploitation, bad prestige adaptations of popular books, and bad biopics. So I'm not enthused with a lot of these. The script is the weakest thing about Nomadland, how much of ONM... is the play? The Father is a very smart way to handle what could be extremely leaden material. So I'd go with that. Haven't had the chance to see White Tiger, but good for Bahrani who is great. Borat has a lot of great scripted material, but I can't say that a movie based half on people's honest reactions is the best screenplay. But I think the political climate and the love for Cohen this year gives them the win.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt

Mank - Erik Messerschmidt

News of the World - Dariusz Wolski

Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Phedon Papamichael

Notes: None of these were in my top 10. Judas and the Black Messiah seems to have done the most with it's camera. I think it's between Nomadland and Man to win. Nomadland takes advantage of landscape and intimate settings equally well and is easily the #2 here, but the rest are inexplicable. Mank's poor attempt at recreating film left the movie with a nauseating digital haze, News of the World is unremarkable in just about every way, as is Trial of the Chicago 7. There are a ton of better looking movies that just don't appear to have been on the radar of voters. First Cow should be here.

Best Achievement in Film Editing

Alan Baumgarten - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland

Frédéric Thoraval - Promising Young Woman

Mikkel E.G. Nielsen - Sound of Metal

Yorgos Lamprinos - The Father

Notes: I think Nomadland is going to sweep up a lot so editing will likely get wrapped in, but The Father's brilliant (and honestly pretty showy) use of the art form to really enhance the story is hard to overlook.

Best Achievement in Production Design

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

News of the World

Tenet

The Father

Notes: Once again, I think the attention to detail in The Father is what makes this the most interesting and likely the winner. But I can also see Mank and Ma Rainey eek it out.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Emma.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Mulan

Pinocchio

Notes: I can't fault any of these nominees. All excellent work. Ma Rainey and Mulan were my 2 and 3, and my 1 wasn't eligible for the Oscars. I think Ma Rainey gets it because there's more goodwill for it than Mulan. Emma could sneak in though. Well deservedly.

Best Sound

Greyhound

Mank

News of the World

Soul

Sound of Metal

Notes: I didn't think any of Mank's experiments worked, but I feel like it will appeal to a lot of people. Sound of Metal is the obvious and correct choice. Sound is at the heart of the story.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Emma.

Hillbilly Elegy

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Pinocchio

Notes: The sweat.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

Da 5 Bloods - Terence Blanchard

Mank - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Minari - Emile Mosseri

News of the World - James Newton Howard

Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

Notes: Terence Blanchard has the reverse arc of John Williams, from cloying and distracting to pretty good. I think Emile Mosseri is brilliant and has offered a few of the best original scores of the last few years and it works in Minari so well. I think one of the Reznor's wins, I'll say Mank since it got so many nominations otherwise.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga Savan Kotecha (music and lyric by), Max Grahn (music and lyric by), Rickard Göransson For song "Husavik"

Judas and the Black Messiah H.E.R. (music by/lyric by), D'Mile (as Dernst Emile II) (music by), Tiara Thomas (lyric by) For song "Fight for You"

One Night in Miami... Leslie Odom Jr. (music and lyric by), Sam Ashworth (music and lyric by) For song "Speak Now"

The Life Ahead La vita davanti a sé (original title) Diane Warren (music by/lyric by), Laura Pausini (lyric by) For song "Io Si (Seen)"

The Trial of the Chicago 7 Celeste (as Celeste Waite) (lyric by), Daniel Pemberton (music by/lyric by) For song "Hear My Voice"

Notes: I mean who gives a fuck right? The Eurovision song is very nice if Will Ferrel didn't 'sing' on in and the movie didn't suck. "Fight For You" isn't bad, but the rest are pretty unremarkable.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Love and Monsters

Mulan

Tenet

The Midnight Sky

The One and Only Ivan

Notes: This is a weird collection of nominees. A lot of nods for bad movies. I can't see why The Invisible Man wasn't nominated. Huge miss. Nolan always has really solid work in the SFX department, partially due to his very old-school pro-practical mentality. I think he puts more effort into blending his digital effects than others. Midnight Sky and Mulan both had pretty pedestrian SFX. Love and Monsters was terrific and the effects were a bit cartoony, but they worked for that world and film.

Best Documentary Feature

Collective - Colectiv (original title)

Crip Camp

My Octopus Teacher

The Mole Agent - El Agente Topo (original title)

Time

Notes: The ammount of love that Collective received makes this a bit of a given I think. It's infuriating and very well made, but the intimacy of Time might be able to pop it out.

Best Documentary Short Subject

A Concerto Is a Conversation

A Love Song for Latasha

Colette <--- They all sound fascinating, I'm just going to guess this one.

Do Not Split

Hunger Ward

Best Animated Feature Film

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Onward

Over the Moon

Soul

WolfWalkers

Notes: I think Soul is a foregone conclusion. I didn't totally get it, but people seem to love it. Wolfwalkers, I think, is a far more interesting film, it doesn't need to make the subtext text.

Best Animated Short Film

Burrow

Genius Loci

If Anything Happens I Love You <-- Sounds heavy, so I'll guess this one.

Opera

Yes-People - Já-Fólkið (original title)

Best Live Action Short Film

Feeling Through

The Letter Room <- Guessing this wins due to Oscar Isaac, though Two Distant Strangers is very of the time.

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

White Eye

Best International Feature Film

Another Round - Druk (original title) - Denmark

Better Days - Shaonian de ni (original title) - Hong Kong

Collective - Colectiv (original title) - Romania

Quo vadis, Aida? - Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Man Who Sold His Skin - Tunisia

Notes: Vinterberg getting a best director nomination is, I think, a pretty good indication of who wins this. Both Another Round and Collective are terrific but I don't want to say a should win without seeing three of the five.

So that's what I think. The real best of is right here, but the Oscars try.

The most important think to remember is I wrote this at night with two cats crawling all over and yelling at me so if there are any spelling errors, keep that to yourself.